Jacob Kanzen, Editor ildado.com
Is number 20 less likely to come up after four successive outcomes? Four successive outcomes of the same number, say; 20 20 20 20, is a rarity. Indeed, the sequential probability of four 20s coming up in a row is very high (1/38 x 1/38 x 1/38 x 1/38 = 1/2,085,136), but the absolute probability of number 20 to come up at each spin is always 1 in 38 (on a double zero Roulette wheel).
If a sequence of four of the same number is a rarity, a sequence of any four numbers is equally a rarity such as 32 12 5 26 or 21 8 35 13. This is not obvious simply because a sequence of 20 20 20 20 is easier to notice than, say; 32 12 5 26. If you have never seen an outcome of four 20s in a row, it is unlikely that you have seen a sequence of 32 12 5 26 or 21 8 35 13. They are just as rare to occur.
Therefore, five successive outcomes of the same number, like 20 20 20 20 20, will be as rare as 20 20 20 20 X, where X can be any number on the Roulette wheel. Although such a sequence is indeed more of a rarity, the number 20 is no more or less likely to appear as the fifth number in the sequence.
The intrusion of absolute probability into sequential probability does not allow you to gain an advantage. See a practical example.
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